从利润实现视角解读金融不稳定假说——兼论后凯恩斯主义对明斯基的批判

Interpreting the Financial Instability Hypothesis from the Perspective of Profit Realization: A Critical Assessment of Post-Keynesian Criticism on Minsky

明斯基先后提出了加速数乘数模型和投资决定理论,作为金融不稳定假说的两大理论基础,但他始终没有对这两大理论基础进行有效整合。明斯基的这一缺陷影响了后凯恩斯主义对其金融不稳定假说的评价,一些后凯恩斯主义学者从利润实现视角对该假说进行了批判性解读,强调投资决定理论将微观分析直接一般化到宏观经济,存在合成谬误问题。本文认为仅仅就投资决定理论而言,后凯恩斯主义的批判似乎是有道理的,但其忽视了明斯基早期提出的加速数乘数模型。本文的研究从加速数乘数模型考察了后凯恩斯主义所提出的利润实现问题。如果将明斯基的投资决定理论置于加速数乘数模型所设定的宏观经济情况中,那么这一理论或可在一定程度上免于后凯恩斯主义的批判,而且两大理论基础可以由此整合为一个统一的金融不稳定分析框架。

Minsky successively proposed the accelerator-multiplier model and the theory of investment as the theoretical foundations of financial instability hypothesis(FIH),but he didn’t integrate the two theories in a consistent way.This flaw of Minsky has affected the post-Keynesian evaluation of FIH.Some post-Keynesians critically interprets and reflects on FIH from the perspective of profit realization, especially emphasizing that it commits the fallacy of composition by generalizing the microeconomic analysis directly to macroeconomics in the formal exposition of the theory of investment.This paper argues that the post-Keynesian critique seems to be justified only in terms of the Minsky’s theory of investment.However, they haven’t made the same examination of the basic model and conclusions of the accelerator-multiplier model from the perspective of profit realization.The paper considers the problem of profit realization.Besides from the accelerator-multiplier model.If Minsky’s theory of investment is placed in the macroeconomic context set by the accelerator-multiplier model, this theory may be exempt from the post-Keynesian criticism to a certain extent, and the two theoretical foundations can thus be integrated into a consistent analytical framework of FIH.