宏观审慎政策与经济增长

Macroprudential Policyand Economic Growth

近年来,全球经济持续低迷、国际金融市场波动频繁,如何在防范系统性风险的同时促进经济可持续发展已经成为世界各国的共同诉求。本文发现,建立合理的宏观审慎政策框架是协调两者的重要政策工具。我们考察了宏观审慎政策影响经济发展的理论机制,发现社会融资杠杆率与经济增长之间存在一个“倒U”型关系,而宏观审慎政策可以约束融资杠杆率在合理区间进而促进经济增长。利用110个国家2000-2017年间的宏观审慎政策数据,我们构造出宏观审慎政策综合指数及其分类指数,并实证考察了宏观审慎政策对经济增长的理论预测。结果表明,宏观审慎政策框架从多个维度规范了信贷融资活动,因而可以通过限制社会融资杠杆率,动态调整信贷规模(占GDP的比重),对平衡经济增长和防范系统性风险两个政策目标起核心调节作用。

Due to the global economy downturn and volatile international financial markets, preventing financial risks and promoting high-quality economic development have been two common goals of policymakers across the world. To achieve these goals, macroprudential policy has emerged as a key policy tool. In this paper, we analyze the theoretical mechanism through which macroprudential policy affects economic development, and argue that there is an inverted “U” relationship between the leverage ratio in the private sector and economic growth, while macroprudential policy can keep the leverage ratio at a reasonable level to promote economic development. Using data of 110 countries from 2000 to 2017, we construct a macroprudential policy index and sub-indexes with two approaches to empirically test the effect of macroprudential policy on economic growth. The results show that the leverage ratio plays a core role in balancing the two policy objectives. Macroprudential policy can limit the leverage ratio, and achieves the dual policy goals of financial risks prevention and stable economic growth through dynamic adjustment of the level of private credit(as a share of GDP).