卡门·莱因哈特对金融经济学的贡献——科睿唯安“引文桂冠”经济学奖得主学术贡献评介

Contributionsof Carmen M.Reinhart to Financial Economics

卡门·莱因哈特是享誉国际学术界和实务部门的女性金融经济学家,因对国际宏观经济学、债务危机及金融危机的研究贡献而入选2021年科睿唯安引文桂冠经济学奖。莱因哈特发现,国际资本流动的主导因素是资本流出国的外因而非流入国的内因,并进一步讨论了国际资本流动前后各国的经济变化以及预防资本流动“突然中断”的政策建议。关于汇率制度,莱因哈特提出了害怕浮动假说,并构建了全新的汇率制度RR分类标准。在债务危机研究中,莱因哈特提出了“债务不耐”概念,发现债务阈值为90%。针对金融危机,莱因哈特建立了货币危机预警系统,定义了传染效应,并确定了金融联系这一传染渠道,为金融危机的预防及治理提供了解决方案。

Carmen M.Reinhart is a female financial economist well-known in academic circles and practical departments all over the world. She has been named the Citation Laureate for her contributions to research on international macroeconomics, debt crisis, and financial crisis. Reinhart finds it is the external factors, NOT the internal factors that dominate international capital flows, discusses economic changes in various countries before and after capital flows, and draws policy suggestions for preventing the “sudden stop” of capital flow. Regarding the exchange rate regime, Reinhart proposes the hypothesis of “fear of floating” and constructs a brand-new RR classification standard of exchange rate regime. With regard to research on debt crisis, Reinhart coins the concept of “debt intolerance” and finds the debt threshold is 90%. As for the financial crisis, Reinhart establishes the currency crisis early warning system, defines the contagion effect and identifies financial connection as the contagion channel, which provides solutions for the prevention and management of financial crises.