双碳目标下征收碳税对石化产业的影响及对策研究

Research on Impact of Carbon Tax on Petrochemical Industry under Carbon Peaking and Carbon Neutrality Goals and the Countermeasures

双碳目标的提出使碳税成为社会各界热议的焦点。石化产业是二氧化碳排放大户,是实现双碳目标的重要参与者。基于我国石化产业2016~2020年相关数据,分析表明我国石化产业企业单位数虽然在减少,但碳排放量占全国碳排放总量的比例仍然较大,产业结构规模庞大但结构层次较低,营业成本高导致营业利润率偏低。征收碳税将会对我国石化产业当前的产业结构、资本结构以及非经济效应等方面产生较大程度的影响,主要表现在两个方面:一方面,碳税将会推动石化产业向高层次的产业结构转型,并将引导石化行业向更绿色的方向发展;另一方面,将会加大企业投资项目的难度,增加企业资金压力,提高融资成本。基于碳税对石化产业不同方面不同程度的影响,并结合国外成功案例,建议我国石化产业要加快产业结构转型,加大高端产品的研发支出,重点发展绿氢技术以实现产业的绿色发展,在大力改善能源结构、提高清洁能源占比的同时坚持节能优先,着力提高能源利用率。

The proposal of carbon peaking and carbon neutrality goals has made carbon tax a hot topic among all circles of society.The petrochemical industry is a major carbon dioxide emitter and an important participant in achieving the carbon peaking and carbon neutrality goals.Based on the relevant data of China′s petrochemical industry from 2016 to 2020,the analysis shows that although the enterprises in China′s petrochemical industry are decreasing in number,the proportion of their carbon emissions in the total national carbon emissions is still large.The industrial structure is large in scale but low in level,and the high operating cost leads to low operating profit margin.Carbon tax will have a great impact on the current industrial structure,capital structure and non-economic effect of China′s petrochemical industry,mainly in two aspects.Carbon tax will promote the transformation of petrochemical industry to a high-level industrial structure and guide the petrochemical industry to develop towards a greener direction on the one hand,on the other hand,it will make it more difficult for enterprises to invest in projects,increase the financial pressure of enterprises and raise the financing cost.Based on the impact of carbon tax on petrochemical industry in various aspects to various extent and combined with successful cases abroad,some suggestions are put forward for China′s petrochemical industry such as speeding up the transformation of industrial structure,increasing the R&D expenditures on high-end products,focusing on developing green hydrogen technologies to achieve the green development of the industry,adhering to the priority of energy conservation while vigorously improving the energy structure and the proportion of clean energy,and focusing on improving energy efficiency.