美国政治生态新变化

New Changes in American Political Ecology

拜登政府执政以来,美国国内政治生态出现值得关注的新变化。首先,民主、共和两党之间以及民主党内双重极化同步加剧,不仅导致拜登所代表的政治中间主义路径无法构建推进其国内改革的政治共识,反而使自身陷入执政困境。其次,围绕2022年美国中期选举的政治斗争白热化,进而形成“中选大选化”的畸形态势并使报复性政治大行其道,进一步恶化了美国国内政治生态。再次,共和党的“特朗普化”趋势进一步确立,由特朗普背书的共和党内反建制力量在美国政治中的影响力日益上升。这些变化将对2022年中期选举之后甚至更长周期内的美国政治产生深刻影响,即政治精英进行选举动员的方式步入新阶段,两党整合方向呈渐行渐远之势,“文化—认同”因素超越“经济—阶级”因素成为美国政治演化的首要动力。

Since the Biden administration took office,there have been some noteworthy new changes in the domestic political ecology of the United States.The simultaneous intensification of dual polarization between the Democratic and Republican parties and within the Democrats not only leads to the failure of Biden’s political centrism path to build a political consensus to promote his domestic reform,but also makes himself in a ruling dilemma.The political struggle around the mid-term elections in the U.S.in 2022 has become white-hot,thus forming an abnormal situation of the election,and making retaliatory politics popular.The trend of Trumpization of the Republican Party has been further established,and the anti-establishment forces within this party endorsed by Trump are increasingly influential in American politics.The changes will have a profound impact on American politics after the mid-term elections in 2022,or even in a longer cycle.