农业生产外包服务水平能否提高粮食生产?——基于2011~2020年省际面板数据的分析

Can the Level of Agricultural Production Outsourcing Services Improve Food Production?——Based on Provincial Panel Data from 2011 to 2020

运用理论分析与数理模型剖析外包服务水平影响粮食生产的作用机制,并基于2011~2020年30个省份的面板数据实证分析外包服务水平对粮食生产的影响,研究发现:农业生产外包服务水平能显著促进粮食生产且地形特征对服务外包影响粮食生产具有调节效应;外包服务水平对粮食生产存在显著的双重门槛效应;外包服务水平可通过土地流转率中介变量部分地促进粮食生产。因此,应坚持服务规模经营与土地规模经营并重,完善农业生产社会化服务体系,建立省域土地流转交易平台,在平原地区继续推动和落实农机购置补贴政策,增加丘陵山区土地整理投入,不断完善购置农业机械配套金融服务。

Using theoretical analysis and mathematical model to analyze the mechanism of outsourcing service level affecting grain production, based on the panel data of 30 provinces in China from 2011 to 2020, this paper empirically analyzes the impact of outsourcing service level on grain production. The study finds that agricultural production outsourcing service level can significantly promote food production and topographic features have a moderating effect on the impact of service outsourcing on food production. The impact of outsourcing services on food production has a significant dual threshold effect. The level of outsourcing services can partially promote food production through the intermediary variables of land transfer rate. Therefore, we should insist on developing both service scale operation and land scale operation, improve the socialized service system for agricultural production, establish a provincial land transfer and trading platform, continue to promote and implement the subsidy policy for the purchase of agricultural machinery in plain areas, and increase investment in land consolidation in hilly and mountainous areas, and improve the purchase of agricultural machinery supporting financial services.