金融抑制与系统性金融风险:竞争性内在机理研究

Financial Repression and Systemic Financial Risk:A Study of Competitive Transmission Mechanism

系统性金融风险已成为“达摩克利斯之剑”,已有研究较少从中国国情出发分析系统性金融风险。金融抑制作为中国经济运行的底层制度安排,对系统性金融风险产生了重要影响。本文将系统性金融风险拆解成银行业、股票市场、房地产市场、政府部门四个子领域的金融风险,从增加与降低两个相反方向剖析金融抑制对系统性金融风险的逻辑传导机理,并基于金融监管强度、经济发展水平进行异质性分析。房地产市场风险、政府债务风险对系统性金融风险影响较大。金融抑制与系统性金融风险之间存在U型关系,而金融监管可弱化两者的关系。现阶段,放松除房地产市场之外的金融抑制、加强金融监管、关注经济欠发达地区政府债务问题能有效防范系统性金融风险。

Systemic financial risk has become the “sword of Damocles”. Previous studies have rarely analyzed systemic financial risk based on China’s national conditions. As the bottom institutional arrangement of China’s economic operation, financial repression has an important impact on systemic financial risk. This paper decomposes the systemic financial risk into four sub fields: banking, stock market, real estate market and government department, and analyzes the logical transmission mechanism of financial repression on systemic financial risk from the opposite directions of increase and decrease, and makes a heterogeneity analysis based on the strength of financial regulation and the level of economic development. The real estate market risk and government debt risk have a great effect on systemic financial risk. There is a U-shaped relationship between financial repression and systemic financial risk, and financial regulation can weaken the relationship between financial repression and systemic financial risk. At this stage, relaxing financial repression in areas other than the real estate market, strengthening financial regulation and paying attention to the government debt problem in economically backward areas can effectively prevent systemic financial risks.