世界顶尖科学家获奖年龄与授奖时滞的周期演变特征——以诺贝尔奖得主为例

The Time-changed Features of World-class Scientists’Ages and Awarding Time Lag:Taking Nobel Laureates as an Example

诺贝尔奖得主授奖时滞和获奖年龄的周期变化特征能够揭示世界顶尖科学家群体在不同历史时期的获奖年龄差异,以及获奖成果取得后的检验周期长短。文章以1901-2019年诺贝尔生理学或医学奖、物理学奖以及1969-2019年诺贝尔经济学奖获得者为分析样本,通过划分6个时间周期阶段,计量分析每个周期阶段诺贝尔奖得主的年龄和授奖时滞分布及其周期演变特征。研究发现:生理学或医学、物理学、经济学诺贝尔奖得主的年龄分布呈现出典型的正态或偏正态分布形态,46-70岁诺贝尔奖得主比例较高,偏年轻和偏老年的诺贝尔奖得主比例较低。诺贝尔物理学奖得主偏年轻化,25-45岁获奖者占25%;诺贝尔经济学奖得主偏老年化,25-45岁获奖者仅占2%。诺贝尔奖获奖难度越来越高,获奖年龄呈现出老龄化趋势,3个学科诺贝尔奖得主各周期阶段平均年龄从第Ⅰ阶段的55.4岁快速增长到第Ⅵ阶段的66.2岁;诺贝尔奖获奖年龄和授奖时滞较高且随时代发展呈现显著上升趋势,其中诺贝尔物理学奖获奖年龄和授奖时滞随时代发展上升速度最快,诺贝尔经济学奖的平均授奖时滞最长,达到31.06年;博士阶段是培育诺贝尔奖得主的黄金时期,几乎所有诺贝尔奖得主最早获得诺贝尔奖初创成果的年龄都在博士毕业后,初创成果经历很长的培育期后,最终获得诺贝尔奖。

The changing features(or,time-changed characteristics)of the time lag and the age of the recipient when awarded the Nobel Prize can reveal the differences in the bestowal ages in different historical periods,and how long it takes for important academic achievements to be tested before the prizes are received.Using the data for Nobel Prize winners in physiology/medicine and physics from 1901 to 2019 and those in economics between 1969and 2019,this paper quantitatively analyzes the time-changed characteristics of the reception ages of the Nobel Prize winners and the time lag of the prize conferral in six time periods(stageⅠ-Ⅵ).The results show:(1)Ages at Nobel Prize conferrals in physiology/medicine,physics and economics present typical normal or skewed normal distributions,where the proportion of middle-aged and elderly winners between 46 and 70 years old is much high,while the proportion of young Laureates is very low;the award ages of Nobel Prize winners in physics tend to be younger,with 54 winners aged 25 to 45,accounting for 25%,however,the award ages of Nobel Prize winners in economics tend to be older,with 2 winners aged 25 to 45,only accounting for 2%.(2)It is increasingly difficult to win the Nobel Prize,and the age distribution exhibits a trend towards aging;the average age of Nobel Prize winners in the three fields has rapidly increased from 55.4 years in stage I to 66.2 years in stage VI.(3)The award age and the time lag of Nobel Laureates are relatively high and show a significant upward trend with the development of the times.The age and the time lag of Nobel Prize reception in physics are rising the fastest,and the average time lag in economics is the longest,reaching 31.06 years.(4)The PhD years is the best time for cultivating Nobel Prize winners.Almost all Nobel Laureates produce their early Nobel Prize-worthy researches shortly after obtaining their doctorates.Following a long cultivation period,the researches finally turn into Nobel Prize achievements.