基于模糊综合评价的洞庭湖区洪涝灾害风险研究

Research on Flood Disaster Risk in Dongting Lake Area Based on Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation

洞庭湖区洪涝灾害频发,为进一步完善洞庭湖区灾害风险分析机制,文章选取河网密度、年均降水等14个影响因子,利用层次分析法计算权重,并通过模糊综合评价法综合分析,最终绘制30 m×30 m湖区洪涝灾害风险评估分布图。结果表明:洪涝风险区主要分布在水系沿岸,主要原因是地势低洼、降雨量密集,城镇化水平较高。研究结果有利于各区因地制宜提出风险管理及防灾减灾工作措施。

The flood disasters occur frequently in Dongting Lake area.In order to further improve the disaster risk analysis mechanism in Dongting Lake area,this paper selects 14 influencing factors such as river network density and annual average precipitation,calculates the weight by using Analytic Hierarchy Process,makes a comprehensive analysis through fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method,and finally draws a 30 m×30 m lake area flood disaster risk assessment distribution map.The results show that the flood risk areas are mainly distributed along the shore of river system,mainly due to low-lying terrain,dense rainfall and higher urbanization level.The research results are conducive to putting forward risk management and disaster prevention and reduction work measures according to local conditions.