经济政策不确定性会影响居民幸福感吗?

Does Economic Policy Uncertainty Affect Residents’Happiness?

在宏观经济管理中,决策者往往面临这样的难题:是不断推出新的经济政策,还是努力完善具有自动稳定功能的经济政策。这两种管理模式的差别在于前者会带来较高的政策不确定性,但后者的治理效果可能会逊于前者。有鉴于此,了解经济政策不确定性的机会成本尤其是其对居民幸福感的影响,具有重大政策意义。基于中国综合社会调查(CGSS)的微观数据,使用行政领导任期和调动数据作为工具变量,实证分析经济政策不确定性对居民幸福感的影响后发现,经济政策不确定性显著降低了居民幸福感。经济政策不确定性所导致的就业不稳定降低了居民的医保参加率和对未来的预期,进而导致幸福感降低。对于地处第三产业更加发达的地区,以及就业和收入缺乏稳定性的人群而言,经济政策不确定性的影响会更加显著。由此,应重点完善具有自动稳定功能的经济政策,积极解决非正规就业、生活困难群体的各种诉求,尽力屏蔽各种有关经济政策的不当解读。

In macroeconomic management,decision-makers often face such problem as whether to constantly introduce new economic policies or strive to improve the economic policies with automatic stability function.The difference between the two is that the former will bring high policy uncertainty,and the effect of the latter may be inferior to the former.In view of this,it is of great policy significance to understand the opportunity cost of economic policy uncertainty(EPU),especially its impact on Residents’happiness.This paper uses the micro data of Chinese General Social Survey(CGSS)to match with China’s provincial EPU index to estimate the impact of EPU on residents’happiness.The results show that EPU has a negative impact on residents’happiness because it affects residents’medical insurance and their expectation of the future.The regions with more developed tertiary industry and the people with less stable employment and income are more vulnerable to the impact of EPU.Therefore,we should focus on improving the economic policy with the function of automatic stabilization,actively solve the various demands of informal employment and poor groups,and try our best to shield all kinds of improper“interpretation”of relevant economic policies.