疫情背景下凯恩斯消费模型修正研究——基于宏观经济政策与微观消费行为交互作用

Research on the Modification of Keynesian Consumption Model under the Interaction of Macroeconomic Policy and Microeconomic Consumption Behavior

疫情出现后经济发生较大改变,在支付方式变革、资产配置调整、有效供给不足的情况下,传统凯恩斯模型并不能很好实现宏观经济总体目标。为了提高凯恩斯消费模型的有效性,本文对宏观经济和微观经济主体行为指标进行验证,根据增加的修正变量改进凯恩斯消费模型,并使用回归分析法对新型支付体系和新型财富配置方式展开了实证研究。结果发现,传统凯恩斯模型从宏观调控角度促进消费依然有效,受政策影响的微观主体消费行为可以通过修正后的凯恩斯消费模型进行预测,且修正模型在考虑支付方式、生命周期和财富配置后,可以为宏观经济政策制定提供更多新的视角。

Under the reform of payment model,asset allocation adjustment and insuffi cient effective supplyment,traditional Keynesian model can not achieve overall macroeconomic objectives.In order to improve the effectiveness of Keynesian consumption model,the paper verifies indicators of macroeconomic policy and behavior of microeconomic subjects,improves Keynesian consumption model according to added modified variables,and then uses regression analysis to verify new payment system and new wealth allocation mode.The results show that traditional Keynesian model is still effective in promoting consumption from the perspective of macro-control,consumption behavior of microeconomic subjects affected by policies can be predicted by improved Keynesian consumption model and the model which is consideried payment mode,life cycle and wealth allocation can provide more perspectives for macroeconomic policy-making.