基于集对分析的天然气分布式能源系统适用性评估研究

Applicability evaluation of the natural gas distributed energy system based on set pair analysis

为了评估天然气分布式能源系统在实际推广过程中的效益合理性,研究了适用性评估模型,基于系统特征、经济、能效、环境等多个角度构建了适用性指标体系,采用集对分析理论对语意划分评估等级进行综合建模,应用层次分析法计算指标权重并通过计算判断最终适用等级,以西安某酒店为例加以验证。结果表明:评估结果的可参照性高,经济性和环境性是影响目前系统适用性的关键因素;与传统供能相比,天然气分布式能源系统的节能率为12.35%,节能减排效果显著且充分发挥了阶梯供能的优势;年度运行费用下降额和简单投资回收期分别为508.61万元和6.61年,在低气价区域推广的获益价值更高。

In order to evaluate the benefit rationality of the natural gas distributed energy system in the process of promotion,the applicability evaluation model was studied.The applicability index system was built from system characteristics,economy,energy efficiency,environment and other aspects.Set pair analysis theory was used to build a comprehensive model for semantic classification evaluation grade.The analytic hierarchy process was applied to calculate the index weight.The final applicable level was determined by calculation and verified taking a hotel in Xi'an as the example.The results showed that the evaluation results were great reference.Economy and environment were the key factors affecting the applicability of the current system.Compared with the traditional energy supply method,the energy saving efficiency of the natural gas distributed energy system was 12.35%.The system saved energy significantly and gave full play to the advantages of stepped energy supply.The reduced annual operating cost was 5.0861 million yuan and the simple payback period was 6.61 years.The promotion of natural gas distributed energy system obtained higher benefits in low gas price areas.