2001-2100年中国温度变化趋势及时空差异研究

Trend and Spatiotemporal Differences of Annual Mean Temperature in China from 2001 to 2100

在气候变暖的大环境下,研究未来时期温度变化可为区域应对气候变暖带来的不利影响提供依据.基于长时间序列1 km温度数据集,采用突变与趋势分析方法,揭示了2001-2020年与2021-2100年中国地区年均温时空格局、突变年份以及变化趋势特征.结果表明:①相比2001-2020年,2021-2100年中国年均温呈现上升趋势,中国东北部、中部以及西北部年均温增幅比其他区域更为明显,且共享社会经济路径中等强迫情景(SSP245)和高强迫情景(SSP585)下年均温增幅均随时间推移而升高,而在共享社会经济路径低强迫情景(SSP119)下年均温表现出先升高后降低的趋势.②2001-2020年,年均温在2010年左右发生显著突变,集中在中国东北部、西南部和东南部,面积占比为48.6%;2021-2100年,SSP119情景下年均温在2040年左右发生显著突变,分布在除中国南部部分地区外的区域,面积占比为85.9%,而在SSP245和SSP585情景下,年均温在中国大部分地区分别在2050年和2075年前后发生显著突变.③2001-2020年,年均温以0.02~0.50℃/10 a的速率呈显著上升趋势,面积占比为6.5%;在年均温突变之前与之后时期,其以0.41~1.71℃/10 a与0.03~1.81℃/10 a的速率显著上升,面积占比分别为9.7%和15.4%.2021-2100年,SSP119情景下年均温以0.02~0.08℃/10 a的速率显著上升,面积占比为21.3%,其余两种SSP情景下年均温在整个中国分别以0.17~0.38,0.39~0.86℃/10 a的速率显著上升;在年均温突变之前与之后时期,SSP119情景下分别以0.03~1.74,0.02~0.62℃/10 a的速率显著上升与下降,面积占比分别为70.9%和62.2%;而在SSP245和SSP585情景下年均温突变前后时期,中国大部分地区年均温均呈显著上升趋势.

Climate warming has become an indisputable fact,and investigating future temperature change could provide a basis for coping to adverse effect of climate warming.Based on the 1 km resolution temperature dataset with long time series,this study revealed spatiotemporal pattern,mutational year,and trend variations of annual mean temperature(AMT)in China during the current(2001-2020)and future(2021-2100)periods by using abrupt change and trend analysis methods.The results show that:①The annual mean temperature in China will show an increasing trend in the future period compared with the current period,and the annual mean temperature in northeastern,central and northwestern China will increase more significantly than in other regions,and the annual mean temperature increases over the time in both SSP245 and SSP585 scenarios,while the annual mean temperature in SSP119 scenario will increase first and then decrease.②During 2001-2020,there was a significant abrupt change in AMT around year 2010,concentrated in the northeast,southwest,and southeast of China with 48.6%of the total area.During 2021-2100,under the SSP119 scenario,the AMT will have a significant abrupt around 2040,which will be distributed in areas other than parts of southern China,accounting for 85.9%,while it will have a significant abrupt change around 2050 and 2075,respectively,over entire China under SSP245 and SSP585 scenarios.③During 2001-2020,AMT showed a significant upward trend with an increase of 0.02-0.50℃/10 a in 6.5%area of China.In the period before and after abrupt change of AMT,it significantly increased at 0.41-1.71℃/10 a and 0.03-1.81℃/10 a in 9.7%and 18.4%of area,respectively.During 2021-2100,AMT will significantly increase with 0.02-0.08℃/10 a under SSP119 scenario and accounting for 21.3%,while AMT under SSP245 and SSP585 scenarios will significantly increase over entire China with 0.17-0.38℃/10 a and 0.39-0.86℃/10 a,respectively.In the period before and after abrupt change of AMT,under SSP119 scenario it will significantly increase and decrease with 0.03-1.74℃/10 a and 0.02-0.62℃/10 a,accounting for an area proportion of 70.9%and 62.2%,respectively,while under SSP245 and SSP585 scenarios it will show a significantly increasing trend in most parts of China.These results can provide a scientific basis for China to formulate policies coping to the adverse effects of climate warming.