基于新能源投资租赁模式的售电公司零售行为推演

Retail Behavior of Power Sales Companies Based on New Energy Investment Leasing Model

面向电力零售市场与负荷侧潜在发电资源,基于新能源投资租赁模式研究售电公司与负荷用户的中长期零售行为,有利于挖掘负荷用户在中长期的投资意愿,提升绿色能源开发效率。首先,基于系统动力学,从不同时间维度着手,分析新能源投资租赁模式在零售市场中的应用,综合考虑售电公司与负荷用户参与新型模式的长期、中期以及短期零售行为,建立了基于多时间尺度的零售行为推演模型;然后,建立了关于售电公司与负荷用户的收益与成本模型,模拟售电公司与负荷用户参与新能源投资租赁模式,为中长期售电公司扩张与负荷用户扩散模型提供数据来源;最后,通过算例分析了售电公司新能源租赁模式,以及负荷用户投资屋顶光伏与分散风电的中长期零售行为推演。

For the electricity retail market and the load-side potential generation resources and based on the new energy investment and leasing model, the mid-& long-term retail behavior of the power sales companies and the load customers is studied, which may be helpful in tapping into the load users’ willingness to invest in the medium to long term and improving the efficiency of the green energy development. Firstly, based on the system dynamics, the application of the new energy investment leasing model in the retail market is analyzed from different time dimensions. The long-term, medium-term and short-term retail behaviors of the power sales companies and the load users participating in the new model are considered comprehensively and a multi-timescale retail behavior-based inference model is established. Then a benefit and cost model on the power sales companies and the load customers is built to simulate the participation of the power sales companies and the load users in the new energy investment leasing models,providing data sources for the mid-& long-term electricity sales company expansion and load user diffusion model.Finally, an example is given to analyze the new energy leasing model of the power sales companies and the medium-and long-term retail behavior of the load customers investing in the rooftop photovoltaic and the decentralized wind power extrapolation.