地理标志农产品和农业经济的时空演变及交互响应

Spatio-temporal Evolution and Interactive Effects of Geographical Indication Agricultural Products and Agricultural Economy

利用多指标综合评价法、协调发展度模型、灰色关联度模型和P-VAR模型对中国326个地级以上行政单元的地理标志农产品与农业经济的时空演化、协同发展、交互响应关系进行了综合测度。研究表明:①地理标志农产品和农业经济发展水平均具有整体上升态势,在空间上分别呈“大分散、小集聚”和“阶梯式下降”的分布特征。②地理标志农产品和农业经济的协调发展等级由初级协调演化为高级协调,空间差异先增大后减小;二者间具有显著的、持续强化的关联性。③地理标志农产品和农业经济均具有正向的自我强化与惯性增长特征,地理标志农产品对农业经济的影响程度较小,而农业经济对地理标志农产品的影响程度较大,形成倒逼作用。

Taking 326 administrative units at prefecture level in China in 2008-2018 as cases,this article comprehensively measures spatial-temporal evolution,dynamic coordinated,and interactive response relationships between geographical indication agricultural products and agricultural economy in China by using multi-index comprehensive evaluation method,coordinated development degree model,grey correlation degree model,and P-VAR model.The results are shown as follows:1)The development level of geographical indication agricultural products and agricultural economy showed an overall upward trend.In terms of space,geographical indication agricultural products dispersed over an extensive area with localized concentrations,while agricultural economy showed the distribution characteristics of declining from coastal to inland.2)The level of coordinated development of geographical indication agricultural products and agricultural economy increases with time,from primary coordination to high-level coordination,and the spatial differences have experienced the process of first increasing and then decreasing;there is a significant correlation between geographical indication agricultural products and agricultural economy,and the correlation has the characteristics of continuous strengthening.3)Geographical indication agricultural products and agricultural economy have the characteristics of self-reinforcement and inertia growth;The influence of geographical indication agricultural products on agricultural economy is small,while the influence of agricultural economy on geographical indication agricultural products is great,which has a reverse forcing mechanism.