回流农民工预期购房区位选择及影响因素--以河南省45村为例

Location Choice and Influencing Factors of Expected Apartment Purchase for Returned Migrant Workers:Case Study of 45 Villages in Henan Province

基于河南省45村1072份田野调查数据,采用描述统计分析和多水平多元Logistic回归分析方法,探讨回流农民工的预期购房区位和影响因素。研究发现:中心地层级对回流农民工预期购房区位选择具有重要影响,但影响强度与回流者年龄相关,新生代回流者偏向于较高层级中心地,而第一代回流者则青睐于低层级中心地。整体上,户籍所在地县城为回流农民工预期购房区位的首选区位,其次为地级市主城区和村庄,集镇和省城较少。个体特征、资金积累、成婚是影响预期购房区位选择的核心因素,村庄地理环境对预期购房区位选择具有重要影响。回流农民工具有较高的县城和城市购房居住预期,未来将是新型城镇化,尤其是就地城镇化的重要力量,应当稳定和降低城镇房价,以实现回流农民工真正的城镇融入。

The location of expected apartment purchase of returned migrant workers reflects the future apartment purchase and residence expectations,and has an important impact on the development of local urbanization.Based on 1072 field survey data from 45 villages in Henan Province,descriptive statistical analysis and Multi-level Logistic Regression Analysis were used to explore the location and influencing factors of apartment purchase of returned migrant workers.It is found that the central location level has an important impact on the location choice of the expected apartment purchase of the returned migrant workers,but the intensity of the impact is related to the age of the returned migrant workers.The new generation of returned migrant workers prefers higher-level central places,while the first-generation prefer lower-level ones.On the whole,the county seat of household registration is the preferred location for returned migrant workers to purchase apartments,followed by the main urban areas and villages of prefecture-level cities,and fewer market towns and provincial capitals.Individual characteristics,capital accumulation,and marriage are the core factors that affect the location selection of expected apartment purchases,and the geographical environment of the village has an important influence on the location selection of expected apartment purchases.In each model,gender,age,length of work,marriage,skills,family economic status,type of return area,type of former work site,and village per capita net income,return ratio and terrain type reached significant levels.Returned migrant workers have high expectations of apartment purchase and residence in counties and cities.In the future,they will be an important force for new urbanization,especially in-situ urbanization.Urban apartment prices should be stabilized and lowered to realize the true urban integration of returning migrant workers.