基于灰色关联度分析气候因素对江西省松材线虫病的影响

Analysis of influences of climate factors on the pine wilt disease based on grey relation analysis

为分析不同气候因素对松材线虫Bursaphelenchus xylophilus引起的松材线虫病的影响程度,本文以江西省全南县(代表赣南,松墨天牛一年2代)和德兴市(代表赣北,松墨天牛一年1代)遭受松材线虫病危害的马尾松林生态系统为研究对象,获取2018年-2021年松材线虫病普查数据和1990年-2021年的主要气象因子数据,结合滑动平均法和灰色关联度分析法比较分析两地的气候差异和疫情年间气候变化对松材线虫病发病面积的影响。结果显示:除德兴市的年均相对湿度和年降水量与历年平均值相比有所降低外,两地其他气象因子均呈上升趋势;灰色关联度分析表明,年均最高气温和年均风速是影响赣南松材线虫疫情的重要气象因子,年均最高气温和年降水量是影响赣北松材线虫疫情的重要气象因子;气温升高促进松材线虫和其媒介昆虫的生长繁殖与活动,风速升高可使媒介昆虫远距离传播松材线虫,降水量减少可降低松材线虫和媒介昆虫染病死亡几率。赣南赣北气候的整体变化趋势都有利于松材线虫病的扩散蔓延。

In order to analyze the impact of different climatic factors on the pine wilt disease(PWD) caused by Bursaphelenchus xylophilus, this study was carried out in the masson pine forest ecosystem in Quannan county of Jiangxi province(representing the south of Jiangxi province, with two generations of Monochamus alternatus a year) and Dexing city(representing the north of Jiangxi province, with one generation of M.alternatus a year) suffering from PWD disease. The PWD survey data from 2018 to 2021 and the data of main climatic factors from 1990 to 2021 were obtained. By using the moving average method and grey relation analysis, the climate difference between the two places and the impact of climate change on the occurrence area of PWD during the epidemic years were compared and analyzed. The results showed that, except that the annual average relative humidity and annual precipitation in Dexing were lower than the average values over the years, other climatic elements in the two places were on the rise. The grey relation analysis showed that the annual maximum temperature and annual wind speed were the important climatic factors affecting the PWD epidemic in southern Jiangxi, while the annual maximum temperature and annual precipitation were the important climatic factors affecting the PWD epidemic in northern Jiangxi. The increase of temperature promoted the growth, reproduction and activities of Bursaphelenchus xylophilus and its vector insects. The increase of wind speed might facilitate vector insects to spread B.xylophilus over a long distance, whereas the decrease of precipitation might reduce the mortalities of B.xylophilus and its vector insects. The overall change of climate in southern and northern Jiangxi is conducive to the spread of PWD.