人口老龄化对技术创新的影响研究

Influence of Population Aging on Technological Innovation

使用我国2010—2019年省级面板数据,采用混合OLS模型、固定效应模型和系统GMM模型实证研究人口老龄化对技术创新的影响。研究结果表明,人口老龄化对技术创新呈现出显著的倒“U”形影响,除个别省份外,大多数省份已步入人口老龄化对技术创新的负向影响阶段。对作用机制检验结果显示,人口老龄化会通过“年龄效应”对技术创新产生负向影响,通过“产业转型效应”和“环境效应”对技术创新产生正向影响。通过对东部、中部和西部不同地区的影响机制进行异质性分析发现,人口老龄化对技术创新的影响机制在各地区表现出不尽相同的特征。基于研究结论,从人口政策、人力资本、要素替代以及环境发展四个角度提出相关政策建议,以期削弱人口老龄化对技术创新的消极影响。

This paper uses provincial panel data of China from 2010 to 2019 to empirically study the impact of population aging on technological innovation by using mixed OLS model,fixed effects model and systematic GMM model.The results show that the impact of population aging on technological innovation presents a significant inverted U-shaped relationship,and except for a few provinces,most provinces enter the stage of negative impact of population aging on technological innovation.The analysis of the influencing mechanism shows that population aging has a negative impact on technological innovation through age effect,and has a positive impact on technological innovation through industrial transformation effect and environmental effect.The heterogeneity analysis of the impact mechanism in the eastern,central and western regions finds out that the impact mechanism of aging on technological innovation shows different characteristics in different regions.Therefore,the paper puts forward relevant policy suggestions from the perspectives of population policy,human capital,elements of alternative and development environment,in order to weaken the negative impact of population aging on technological innovation.