人财物统一管理改革能提升贵州省审计质量吗?——基于合成控制法的实证研究

Can the Reform of Unified Management of Human and Financial Resources Improve Audit Quality in Guizhou Province?——An Empirical Study Based on Synthetic Control Method

以2015年实施的省以下地方审计机关人财物统一管理改革作为准自然实验,基于2007—2018年中国省级面板数据,运用合成控制法构造真实改革试点地区与合成改革地区,测度人财物统一管理改革对贵州省审计质量的影响。研究发现:(1)相比于未改革省份,改革能显著提升贵州省审计质量。2016—2018年贵州省人均审计质量金额年均提升3.5万元。经过安慰剂检验、排序检验、均方预测误差比值检验后该结论仍然成立。(2)改革效果各试点省份存在异质性,贵州省、山东省、江苏省、浙江省、广东省的提升效果明显,重庆市存在一定的时滞性,云南省的改革效果提升不显著。(3)相较于其他试点省份,贵州省的改革最为彻底,其改革经验对于进一步深化审计管理体制改革和构建集中统一、全面覆盖、权威高效的审计监督体系具有一定的启示和指导意义。

Using the unified management reform of human and financial resources of sub-provincial local audit institutions implemented in 2015 as a quasi-natural experiment,the impact of the unified management reform of human and financial resources on audit quality is measured based on Chinese provincial panel data from 2007 to 2018,using synthetic control method to construct real reform pilot areas and synthetic reform areas.The study shows that(1)the reform can significantly improve audit quality in Guizhou province compared to unreformed provinces.Audit quality in Guizhou province improved by an average increase of 35,000 yuan per year from 2016 to 2018.The conclusion still holds after placebo test,ranking test,and mean square prediction error ratio test.(2)There is heterogeneity in the reform effect,with significant improvement in Guizhou,Shandong,Jiangsu,Zhejiang,and Guangdong provinces,some time lag in Chongqing municipality,and insignificant improvement in Yunnan province.(3)Compared with other pilot provinces,Guizhou province has the most thorough reform,and its reform experience has certain inspiration and guidance for further deepening the reform of audit management system and building a centralized,unified,comprehensive coverage,authoritative and efficient audit supervision system.