央行数字人民币在“一带一路”区域化过程中的博弈分析

Game Analysis of Central Bank's Digital RMB in the Regionalization Process of“Belt and Road”Initiative

以央行数字人民币“一带一路”区域化为背景,构建中国与“一带一路”沿线国家、中国与沿线主要国际货币发行国的两两演化博弈模型,研究央行数字人民币在“一带一路”区域化进程中利益相关体的博弈过程及均衡结果,并通过情景模拟实验寻找博弈的最终演化均衡点。研究结果表明,尽管在短期内,央行数字人民币在“一带一路”区域化进程中会遭到来自沿线国家和沿线主要国际货币发行国的抵制,但是长期来看,央行数字人民币在“一带一路”区域化博弈中倾向于采取“推出”策略,且“一带一路”沿线国家倾向于采取“接受”策略,沿线主要国际货币发行国也倾向于采取“合作”策略,以此促进未来国际货币体系实现多元化发展。

Under the background of the regionalization of the“Belt and Road”with the Central bank s digital RMB,a pound-for-pair evolutionary game model is constructed between China and countries along the“Belt and Road”and between China and major international currency issuing countries along the“Belt and Road”,and the game process and equilibrium results of stakeholders of the Central bank s digital RMB in the regionalization process of the“Belt and Road”are studied.And through the scenario simulation experiment to find the final evolutionary equilibrium point of the game.The results show that,although in the short term,the central bank s digital RMB will be resisted by the countries along the“Belt and Road”and the major international currency issuing countries along the“Belt and Road”in the regionalization process;But in the long term,the central bank figures in RMB in all the way“regionalization”area tend to adopt the“launching”strategy in the game,and“neighbourhood”all the way along the countries tend to adopt the strategy of“acceptance”,along the main international currencies also tend to adopt“cooperation”strategy,so as to promote the development of diversification in the future international monetary system.