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担保网络影响分析师盈余预测偏差吗? 被引量:1

Does the Guarantee Network Affect Analysts Earnings Forecast Bias?
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摘要 以2008-2018年沪深A股上市公司为研究对象,采用社会网络分析法考察上市公司担保网络对分析师盈余预测的影响。研究发现,上市公司加入担保网络会显著增加分析师盈余预测偏差,降低预测准确度,这种负面效应在双向担保、跨省融资担保、长期处于担保网络以及位于担保网络结构洞位置的上市公司中更加明显,而上市公司选择退出担保网络则有效降低了这种负面影响,提高了分析师盈余预测准确度。进一步研究发现,会计信息可比性是担保网络影响分析师盈余预测偏差的一条重要作用路径。调节效应分析结果显示,高质量的内部控制、良好的公司治理等内部治理机制与媒体监督、机构投资者治理等外部治理机制均能够有效降低担保网络上市公司对分析师盈余预测偏差的消极影响。研究结果有助于进一步梳理企业间复杂关系对资本市场信息传递效率的影响,为资本市场各方参与者有效缓解担保网络的消极影响提供了经验证据与政策方向。 Based on the data of China s A-share listed companies from 2008 to 2018,we examine the impact of guarantee network on analysts earnings forecast bias.We find that the companies in the guarantee network will significantly increase analysts earnings forecast bias and reduce forecast accuracy.Further analyses suggest that the effect of guarantee network on analysts earnings forecast bias is more significant for firms are two-way guarantee,in trans-provincial financing guarantee circles,in the guarantee network for a long time and in the structural hole position of guarantee network.However,this negative impact will be mitigated,even disappear,if the companies in the guarantee network choose to exit the network.Further analyses find that accounting information comparability is the channel through which guarantee network affects analysts earnings forecast bias.In addition,we also find that the internal governance mechanisms of high-quality internal control,good corporate governance,as well as external governance mechanisms such as media supervision and institutional investor governance,can effectively reduce the negative impact of guarantee network on analysts earnings forecast bias.Our study enriches the research on the impact of the guarantee network on the information environment of the capital market from the perspective of analysts earnings forecast,helps to further sort out the impact of complex relationships between enterprises on the efficiency of information transmission in the capital market,and effectively alleviate the guarantee network for all participants in the capital market.Negative impacts provide empirical evidence and policy direction.
作者 付文博 庄旭东 FU Wenbo;ZHUANG Xudong(School of Accounting,Capital University of Economics and Business,Beijing 100070,China;School of Economics and Finance,South China University of Technology,Guangzhou 510006,China)
出处 《审计与经济研究》 CSSCI 北大核心 2022年第6期79-91,共13页 Journal of Audit & Economics
关键词 担保网络 分析师盈余预测 会计信息可比性 内外部治理 资本市场 内部控制 媒体监督 guarantee network analysts earnings forecast accounting information comparability internal and external governance capital market internal control media supervision
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