贵州省产业结构与就业结构演变趋势实证分析

Empirical Analysis on the Evolution Trend of Industrial Structure and Employment Structure in Guizhou Province

基于1988~2018年贵州省面源数据,以第三产业占GDP比重(Xi)为自变量、第三产业就业人数占比(Yi)为因变量,构建OLS回归模型对贵州省产业结构与就业结构演变趋势实证分析,得到以下主要结论:第三产业产值占比显著影响第三产业就业人数占比,第三产业产值占比增加1,第三产业就业人数占比增加0.32。但是第三产业就业人数并没有随着第三产业产值的增加而增加,说明第三产业产值与就业处于不协调;第三产业产值与就业人数不协调、就业结构与产业结构不协调是制约该省经济高质量发展的主要因素。提出实施积极有效的产业政策,发展现代服务业,提高劳动力文化水平,完善就业保障机制的对策建议。

Based on the non-point data of Guizhou Province from 1988 to 2018,with the proportion of the tertiary industry in GDP(Xi)as the independent variable and the proportion of employment in the tertiary industry(Yi)as the dependent variable,an OLS regression model was constructed to conduct an empirical analysis of the evolution trend of industrial structure and employment structure in Guizhou.The following main conclusions were obtained:the proportion of output value of the tertiary industry significantly affected the proportion of employment in the tertiary industry.The proportion of output value of the tertiary industry increased by 1,and the proportion of employment in the tertiary industry increased by 0.32.However,the number of employment in the tertiary industry did not increase with the increase of the output value of the tertiary industry,indicating that the output value of the tertiary industry and the number of employment were uncoordinated.The uncoordinated output value of the tertiary industry and the number of employment,and the uncoordinated employment structure and industrial structure were the main factors restricting the high-quality development of economy in Guizhou.The countermeasures and suggestions were proposed to develop modern service industry,improve the cultural level of labor force and improve its employment security mechanism.