国际原油市场价格强波动对中国粮食市场的影响--基于反事实模拟情景的分析

The impact of the drastic fluctuation of international crude oil market price on China's grain market:Based on an analysis of counterfactual simulation scenario

复杂多变国际局势下能源市场越发剧烈的价格波动,对国内粮食市场稳定性的影响日益显化。构建局部均衡模型对国际原油市场价格强波动情景下的国内粮食市场风险进行反事实模拟评估,研究发现:国际原油价格的强波动会引起粮价的涨价效应和产量的减产效应,其减产效应总体呈倒“U”型;相比大米和小麦,玉米和大豆的市场稳定性在面对冲击时显得更为脆弱,涨价效应和减产效应更为显著。对此,加强国际对话与合作、布局海外能源基地、加快涉农涉粮传统能源消耗品种的更迭可能是提升国内粮食市场防御外部能源市场价格波动风险能力的有效途径。

In the complex and volatile international situation,the increasingly severe price fluctuation in the energy market has a growing impact on the stability of the domestic grain market.By constructing a partial equilibrium model,a counterfactual simulation evaluation of the domestic grain market risk in the scenario of strong fluctuations in the international crude oil market price has conducted.The study shows that the drastic fluctuation of international crude oil price would lead to grain price increase effect and production reduction effect.The overall effect of production reduction forms an inverted U shaped curve.Compared with rice and wheat,the stability of corn and soybean markets is more fragile facing the drastic fluctuations in the international crude oil market price,and the price increasing effect and the production reduction effect are more significant.Thus,strengthening international dialogue and cooperation,developing overseas energy bases,and accelerating the change of traditional agricultural-related and grain-related energy consumption varieties might be effective ways to enhancing the domestic grain market's ability to defend against the risk of price fluctuations in external energy markets.