市场化改革对不同政策区玉米价格波动的影响

The influence of market-oriented reform on corn price fluctuation in different policy areas

玉米市场化改革后,由于政府托市政策退出,增大了价格波动的驱动力,但是同时也降低分隔市场之间的交易成本,有利于空间套利机制发挥,抑制价格波动。两种机制的作用路径不同,可能使得市场化改革对不同产销区玉米价格波动产生异质性影响。采用2011-2019年玉米主要产、销区的月度价格数据实证分析玉米市场化改革对价格波动的地区异质性影响,结果显示:玉米市场化改革后,政策产区的玉米价格波动显著增大,非政策产区的玉米价格波动显著减小,销区的玉米价格波动显著减小,稳健性检验验证了结果的可靠性。

After the corn market-oriented reform and the withdrawn of the government-supported market,the driving force of the price fluctuation has been increased,but at the same time,the transaction cost between the separated markets has been reduced,which is conducive to the play of the spatial arbitrage mechanism and the restraining of the price fluctuation.The two mechanisms differ in their action paths,which may lead to the heterogeneous impacts of market-oriented reform on the price fluctuation of corn in different production and sales areas.Based on the monthly price data of the main corn production and sales regions from 2011 to 2019,the regional heterogeneity impact of corn market-oriented reform on price fluctuation has been studied.The result shows that after the corn market-oriented reform,the corn price fluctuation in the policy-implemented producing areas has increased dramatically while the fluctuation of corn prices in the producing areas without implementing the reform has decreased significantly and the fluctuation of corn price in the sales areas has reduced remarkably.The reliability of the results has been verified through the robustness test.