中美贸易摩擦对中国木质林产品国际贸易的影响分析

Analysis of the Impact of Sino-US Trade Friction on International Trade of Chinese Wood Forest Products

采用灰色关联分析法测算不同影响因素与中国木质林产品进出口贸易水平的灰色关联系数,选择强关联指标构建多变量灰色模型MGM(1,N),运用反事实推理法测度和分析中美贸易摩擦的影响。研究发现:随着双方多轮加征关税,在大国效应和市场替代效应双重作用下,中美贸易摩擦改变了中国木质林产品贸易的既定走势,呈现先上升再较大幅度下降的趋势;在关税效应充分展现后,显著降低了主要进口产品的进口成本,但危害木材进口安全,恶化了主要出口产品出口贸易条件,其中木质家具和胶合板出口贸易利得严重受损;中美贸易摩擦具有正负两方面的影响,中国应继续加强木材进口多元化,加快实施“双循环”战略,减少木质林产品对外依存度,改变木质家具和胶合板“量多价低”的出口模式。

⑴Background——China is the largest importer and fifth largest exporter of wood forest products,while the United States is the second largest importer and largest exporter of wood forest products in the world.Meanwhile,the US is the largest export and import trade partner of China s wood forest products.The Sino-US trade friction initiated by the US in March 2018 involves the vast majority of wood forest products.Existing studies mainly focus on the impact of Sino-US trade friction on bilateral wood forest products trade and profit and loss,ignoring its overall impact on China s international wood forest products trade.Measurement and analysis of the impact of Sino-US trade friction on China s international trade of wood forest products is helpful for us to take corresponding measures to cope with the challenge of the Sino-US trade friction and ensure stable and healthy development of China s wood forest products industry and international trade.⑵Methods——From the three aspects of demand,supply and trade,8 indicators that may have a great impact on import and 11 indicators that may have a great impact on export are selected.Based on the data from 2002 to 2017,the grey correlation analysis method is used to measure the grey correlation coefficient between different influencing factors and the import and export trade level of China s overall wood forest products and the import and export trade level of the main wood forest products.Selecting strong correlation indicators to construct Multi-variable Grey Model MGM(1,N),“Counterfactual reasoning method”is used to measure and analyze the impact of Sino-US trade friction since 2018 on the import and export of China s wood forest products as a whole and the import and export of main wood forest products.⑶Results——With the implementation of multiple rounds tariffs imposed by China and the US,under the dual effects of large country effect and the substitution effect of import and export markets,except for paper,paper products and wood products,trade amount and quantity of the import and export of China s most wood forest products first increase and then decrease significantly.Further research shows that Sino-US trade friction significantly reduces the import cost of China s main wood forest products,but has a large negative impact on China s imports of logs and sawn timbers,it endangers China s wood import safety,and worsens the export trade conditions of China s main wood forest products,but the impact is quite different.China s wooden furniture and plywood exports show a bad trend of an increase in export volume and a decrease in export prices.It can be seen that the profits from China s wood forest products import trade increase significantly,while the profits from China s wooden furniture and plywood export trade is damaged severely,and the export of China s wooden furniture and plywood faces severe challenges.⑷Conclusions and Discussions——China should recognize the positive and negative impacts of Sino-US trade friction,and accelerate the implementation of the“double cycle”strategy while continuing to strengthen the import diversification of logs and sawn timbers,reducing the high dependence on foreign timber resources and changing the export mode of“large quantity and low price”of Chinese wooden furniture and plywood.