中国电解铝行业产能过剩标准研究

Research on Overcapacity Standards in Electrolytic Aluminum Industry

一直以来,电解铝行业的产能过剩问题是困扰中国的一个重要问题.学术界多以产能利用率作为衡量电解铝行业产能利用程度以及判断电解铝行业是否处于产能过剩状态的指标,但是对产能过剩的标准却没有科学合理的界定.从行业利润率、价格波动率和专家打分法三个不同的角度出发分析电解铝行业产能过剩的标准,认为电解铝行业的合理产能利用区间是85%-90%,为判断电解铝行业产能过剩状态提供了理论依据.

Overcapacity in the electrolytic aluminum industry has always been an important issue that plagued China.The academic community often uses the capacity utilization rate(CU)as a measure of the capacity utilization of the electrolytic aluminum industry and whether the electrolytic aluminum industry is in an overcapacity state.However,there is no scientific and reasonable definition of the overcapacity standard.This paper analyzes the overcapacity standards of electrolytic aluminum industry from three different perspectives of industry profit rate,price volatility and expert scoring method.It believes that the reasonable capacity utilization range of electrolytic aluminum industry is 85%-90%,in order to judge the capacity of electrolytic aluminum industry.The excess state provides a theoretical basis.