基于群组AHP法的桥梁设计安全风险评估

Bridge Design Safety Risk Assessment Based on Group AHP Method

针对桥梁工程设计阶段的安全风险评估多采用定性研究的现状,提出基于群组AHP法的安全风险评估方法.首先基于一致性矩阵的性质,对专家指标权重算法进行改进;再利用《指南》的风险源评估方法,建立桥梁设计安全风险评估层次结构模型;然后以专家调查法定性分析为基础,采用改进群组AHP法计算各项目层和目标层多个专家的指标权重,求得各层次的评价值和风险等级;最后以某山区悬索桥为例给出桥梁设计安全风险评估的流程.结果表明,群组AHP法的评估结论较为合理,实现了桥梁设计风险评估定性与定量方法的有机结合,计算方法应用方便,具有实际应用价值,可对桥梁设计安全风险评估提供参考.

Aiming at the current situation that qualitative research is mostly used in safety risk assessment in the design stage of bridge engineering design stage,this paper proposes a safety risk assessment method based on the group AHP method.First,based on the property of the consistency matrix,this paper improves the expert index weight algorithm.The paper establishs a hierarchical structure model of the bridge design safety risk assessment based on the risk source assessment method of the Guide.Then,based on the qualitative analysis of expert surveys,this paper uses the improved group AHP method to calculate the index weight of multiple experts at each project level and target level,and obtains the evaluation value and risk level of each level.Finally,a suspension bridge in a mountainous area is used as an example to give the safety risk assessment process of the bridge design.The results show that the evaluation conclusion of the group AHP method is more reasonable,it realizes the organic combination of qualitative and quantitative methods of bridge design risk assessment.the calculation method is easy to apply,and has practical application value,which can provide a reference for the safety risk assessment of bridge design.