可变分数阶累加灰色模型及其在我国航空管制员中的预测应用

Deformable Accumulation Grey model and Its Forecasting Application on Air Traffic Controller in China

为了提高传统灰色模型的预测精度,提出了可变形分数阶导数灰色模型,该模型可以使用实际序列的初始值,并且证明了累积阶数(α)与误差之间的相关关系。分析结果表明,可变形分数阶导数灰色模型可以增强传统灰色模型的预测能力.并且,以飞行支援架次和空中交通管制员的数量为例,验证了这一模型与传统灰色模型相比,预测精度显著提升。

Deformable fractional derivative grey model is proposed to improve the predictive accuracy of traditional grey models.The proposed model can use the initial value of actual sequence.The relationship between the accumulation order(α) and the error is proved.The comparison results show that the new model can enhance the forecasting ability of the traditional grey models.The flight support sorties and the number of air traffic controller are predicted by the proposed model in China,respectively.