优化灰导数的MGM(1,m)模型

Improved Grey Derivative of Grey MGM(1,m)Model

基于灰色MGM(1,m)模型的建模机理,分析了该模型的模型误差产生的原因,针对该原因并结合灰色MGM(1,m)模型的时间响应式的形式和1-AGO序列的准指数规律构造了灰导数的优化公式,使得模型的精度得到了较大的提高,扩大了模型的适用范围,实例证明,优化模型具有较高的理论意义和实际应用价值。

Based the principle and characteristic of grey MGM(1,m)model,the cause of grey MGM(1,m)model's inaccuracy is analyzed,based on the structure of the time response formula in the grey MGM(1,m)model and the accumulated sequence with quasiexponential law the new formula of grey derivative is structured in this paper.The new modeling method improves the simulation precision and extends the application scope of grey MGM(1,m)model.Some examples are also given to show that the precision of the new model is very high.