美元周期对中长期国际原油价格波动的影响

Effects of the US Dollar Cycle on International Medium-long Term Oil Price Fluctuation

为解决中长期国际油价走势无法有效预测的问题,对自1974年美元石油诞生以来近50年的美元指数及油价历史数据进行分析,在大时间尺度上总结了国际油价中长期波动规律。通过引入实际购买力油价概念,发现在现存国际经济体系下,实际购买力油价与美元指数之间存在周期性负相关关系,美元指数与国际油价之间存在约12个月时移现象。基于研究成果对未来中长期油价变化趋势进行分析预测并给出相关建议。

In order to solve the problem that the trend of international oil prices in the medium and long term cannot be effectively predicted,the USDX and oil price data from 1974 to 2020 was used to investigate the mid-long term international oil price fluctuation laws.The results show that under the current international economic system,the fluctuation of crude oil price was linked to the US dollar.By using the concept of the actual purchasing power oil price,the periodic negative correlation relationship between the actual purchasing power oil price and the USDX are revealed.The phenomenon that a 12 months’time shift exists between USDX and the international oil price are also found.In view of this,the future trends of medium-long term oil price are predicted,and the related suggestions are given.