基于多元回归的乙醇罐车瞬时泄漏伤害范围预测模型

Prediction Model of Instantaneous Leakage Damage Range of Ethanol Tanker Based on Multiple Regression Analysis

为提高乙醇罐车瞬时泄漏伤害范围预测精度,通过对泄漏伤害方式与后果分析及单因素变量法模拟事故,研究各个因素对伤害范围的影响规律与其重要度,获得环境风速与泄漏量等伤害范围的关键影响因素,建立以伤害范围最大半径为因变量、环境风速与泄漏量为自变量的不同伤害方式和伤害等级下由12个多元回归方程组成的二次预测模型组,结果表明,二次回归预测模型对乙醇罐车瞬时泄漏伤害范围有较好的预测精度,能为预测乙醇泄漏扩散伤害范围提供理论参考,对制定危化品道路运输事故应急预案、确保人员安全疏散及控制泄漏事故损失等有较好的指导意义。

In order to improve the prediction accuracy of instantaneous leakage damage range of ethanol tanker,through the analysis of leakage injury mode and consequence and the simulation of accident by single factor variable method,the influence law and importance of various factors on injury range were studied.The key factors affecting the damage range such as environmental wind speed and leakage are obtained.A quadratic prediction model group composed of 12 multiple regression equations under different injury modes and injury grades is established with the maximum radius of injury range as dependent variable,ambient wind speed and leakage as independent variable.The results show that the quadratic regression prediction model has a good prediction accuracy for the instantaneous leakage damage range of ethanol tankers,and can provide theoretical reference for predicting the damage range of ethanol leakage and diffusion.It has a good guiding significance for formulating emergency plans for road transport accidents of dangerous chemicals,ensuring safe evacuation and controlling the loss of leakage accidents.