基于熵值-TOPSIS模型的湖南省水资源安全空间评价及障碍因子诊断

Spatial evaluation and obstacle factor diagnosis of water resources security in Hunan Province based on entropy weight-TOPSIS model

湖南省水资源安全对维系长江中下游地区水安全有着重要作用,对其进行空间评价和障碍因子诊断,旨在为区域生态治理和水资源开发利用提供决策依据。从水资源条件、社会经济条件和生态环境条件3个子系统中选择13个指标构建水资源安全空间评价指标体系,运用熵值-TOPSIS模型评价水资源安全综合状况并绘制空间分布图,利用障碍度模型识别主要障碍因子。结果表明:2000-2015年湖南省水资源安全处于Ⅲ级(基本安全),至2020年达到Ⅱ级(较安全)状态,并逐年好转,与水利建设成果同步;2000-2020年间全域水资源安全空间分异明显,郴州市保持着较高的水资源安全水平状态,湘潭市和衡阳市处于较低安全水平;湖南省水资源安全主要障碍因子为GDP、人口密度、农田有效灌溉单位用水量、单位工业增加值用水量和单位GDP用水量。湖南省水资源安全水平在研究期内稳步提高,处于不安全水平的区域还需要进一步围绕主要障碍因子进行优化。

Water resources security in Hunan Province plays an important role in maintaining water security in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River.The spatial evaluation and obstacle factor diagnosis of water resources security in Hunan Province are aimed to provide decision-making basis for regional ecological management and water resources development and utilization.Here,13 indices from subsystems of water resources condition,social economic condition and ecological environment condition were selected to construct a spatial evaluation index system of water resources security,then the entropy weight-TOPSIS model was used to evaluate the comprehensive situation of water resources security,and the spatial distribution map was drawn.Meanwhile,the main obstacle factors were identified by obstacle degree model.The results show that the water resources security of Hunan Province was at levelⅢ(basic safety)from 2000 to 2015,and reached levelⅡ(relatively safe)by 2020,which showed an annual improving trend,keeping pace with the achievements of water conservancy constructions.In the research period,the spatial differentiation of water resources security was distinct,Chenzhou City maintained a high-level water resources security,whereas Xiangtan and Hengyang City were at a low level.The main obstacle factors of water resources security in Hunan Province were GDP,population density,water consumption per unit of farmland effective irrigation,water consumption per unit of industrial added value and water consumption per unit of GDP.The water resources security level of Hunan Province has been steadily improving in the research period,it is suggested that the further optimization of the unsafe areas should focus on the main obstacle factors.