基于系统动力学的珠澳地区取用水系统水资源承载力

Water resources carrying capacity of Zhuhai-Macao water intake system based on system dynamics

珠澳地区经济社会快速发展导致水资源问题日益突出。综合考虑珠澳地区经济社会发展和水资源开发保护,基于系统动力学理论设置现状趋势发展、经济优先发展、环境优先发展及综合发展4个情景方案,分析4个情景下珠澳地区“水-社会-生态”复杂水系统水资源承载力状况,并预测2020-2030年综合水资源承载力发展趋势。结果表明:预测期内各情景下的水资源承载力均呈上升趋势,而综合发展情景下至2030年用水总量低于广东省最严格水资源管理制度中所要求的6.84×10^(8) m^(3),整体优于其他情景;珠海市对澳门供水约占供水总量的15%,经济发展及人口增长会导致澳门用水出现供需缺口,综合发展情景可以缓解珠海市的供水压力;对各发展情景下用水效率分析发现,降低工业用水有利于环境保护,但会阻碍经济发展,提高工业用水效率并实施节水措施可实现环境保护与经济发展的双赢。珠海市与澳门取用水具有联动调控特点,水资源面临较大承载压力,采取适宜措施有利于提高珠澳地区水资源承载力。

With the rapid development of social economy in Zhuhai and Macao,the problem of water resources has become increasingly prominent.For the comprehensive development of Zhuhai-Macao region and the protection of water resources,the water resources carrying capacity of water-society-ecology complex system is analyzed under four scenarios based on system dynamics,namely,status quo,priority of economic development,priority of environmental protection and integrated development,and then the developing trend of comprehensive water resources carrying capacity of 2020-2030 is estimated under these scenarios.The results showed that the water resources carrying capacity of all scenarios in the forecast period shows an increasing trend,and the total water consumption in the integrated development scenario is lower than 684×10^(6) m^(3) required by the strictest water resources management system in Guangdong Province,which is better than other scenarios overall.Zhuhai’s water supply to Macao is about 15%of the total water supply,economic development and population growth will lead to a gap in water supply and demand in Macao,and integrated development scenario can relieve the pressure on Zhuhai’s water supply.Analysis of the water use efficiency of each development model reveals that reducing industrial water use is beneficial to environmental protection,but will hinder economic development,whereas improving industrial water use efficiency and implementing water conservation measures can achieve a win-win situation for both environmental protection and economic development.The water intake of Zhuhai and Macao are interconnected,so the local water resources are under great pressure.Therefore,appropriate measures should be taken to improve the carrying capacity of water resources in this region.