南京市不同城市化水平区域洪灾风险评价

Flood risk assessment of regions at different urbanization levels in Nanjing City

近年来,“城市看海”“城市看江”现象时有发生,引起专家学者的广泛关注。为研究城市化水平与洪灾风险之间的关系,综合考虑致灾因子、孕灾环境、承灾体、防洪减灾能力等因素,利用ArcGIS技术和综合评价法,以南京市部分行政区为例,进行不同城市化水平区域洪灾风险评价。结果表明:随着城市化水平的提高,研究区的洪灾风险总体呈上升趋势,洪灾风险与城市化水平基本呈正相关性,其中秦淮区和鼓楼区的风险等级最高,其次为建邺区和雨花台区,而江宁区和溧水区的风险等级较低,一直维持在较低风险的水平。研究结果能较好地反映南京市洪涝灾害风险的实际分布情况,表明研究方法的有效性和研究成果的可靠性,可为有关部门洪灾风险管理提供理论支撑。

In recent years,the phenomena of“seeing the sea in cities”and“seeing the river in cities”have occurred from time to time,which have aroused widespread concern among experts and scholars.In order to study the interaction between urbanization level and flood risk,we used ArcGIS technology and the comprehensive evaluation method to evaluate the flood risk in some administrative districts of Nanjing City at different urbanization levels,taking into account the factors of disaster-causing factors,disaster-breeding environment,disaster-bearing body and flood mitigation capacity.The results show that with the increase of urbanization level,the overall flood risk in the study area shows an increasing trend,and the flood risk of the districts is basically positively correlated with the urbanization level,among which Qinhuai and Gulou district are at the highest risk level,followed by Jianye and Yuhuatai district,whereas Jiangning and Lishui district have been maintaining a low risk level.The research results can correctly reflect the actual distribution of flood risk in Nanjing,indicating the validity of the research method and the reliability of the research results.Therefore,it can provide a theoretical support for flood risk management of relevant government departments.