基于熵权TOPSIS模型的西北五省区水资源承载力评价研究

Research on the Evaluation of Water Resources Carrying Capacity in Five Northwest Provinces Based on Entropy TOPSIS Model

针对西北地区水资源严重短缺和水环境污染等问题,为探究五省区水资源承载力状况,基于“水资源-经济-社会-生态环境”框架模型构建了西北五省区水资源承载力评价指标体系,运用熵权TOPSIS模型和耦合协调模型定量评价2004-2019年西北五省区水资源承载力时空演化过程及子系统间的耦合协调性,引入障碍度模型得出西北五省区水资源承载力提升的障碍因素。结果表明:2004-2019年间,西北五省区水资源承载力水平呈缓慢提升态势,由水资源短缺状态转变为水资源合理状态;水资源承载力省际空间上差异性明显,青海和陕西水资源承载力水平较高,但省际间差距呈现逐年缩小的良好趋势;水资源、经济、社会、生态环境子系统承载力发展水平均呈现逐年增长趋势,水资源和生态环境子系统承载力发展水平滞后于经济和社会系统;西北五省区水资源承载力子系统间处于耦合度高、良好协调阶段,五省区发展水平省际空间上表现为比较均衡局面;人均水资源量、产水模数、有效灌溉率、水土流失治理面积、自然保护区面积占比表是阻碍西北五省区水资源承载力提升的主要障碍因素。研究表明西北五省区水资源承载力水平和系统内部协调性目前处于较高水平,整体向着健康、协调均衡的方向不断推进,同时在水资源管理和区域用水方式转变等方面仍有较大的提升空间。

The carrying capacity of water resources is one of the key factors affecting the sustainable development of the region.The evalua‐tion of the carrying capacity of water resources can provide a data basis for the spatial balance of regional water resources.Based on the framework model of“Water Resources-Economy-Society-Ecological Environment”,an evaluation index system for water resources carrying capacity in the five northwestern provinces is constructed,and the entropy TOPSIS model and the coupling coordination model are used to quantitatively evaluate the water resources carrying capacity in the five northwestern provinces from 2004 to 2019.The spatial-temporal evolution process of force and the coupling and coordination between subsystems,the obstacle degree model is introduced to obtain the obstacles to the improvement of the water resources carrying capacity in the five northwestern provinces.The results show that from 2004 to 2019,the water resources carrying capacity of the five northwestern provinces have been slowly increasing,from a water shortage state to a reasonable state of water resources.There is a clear gap in the water resources carrying capacity between Qinghai and Shaanxi.The carrying capacity level is high,but the gap between provinces shows a good trend of shrinking year by year;the carrying capacity of water resources,economy,society,and ecological environment system shows a year-fter-year growth trend,and the development level of the carrying capacity of water resources and ecological environment subsystems lags behind that of the economy.And the social system,the water resources carrying capacity subsystems of the five northwestern provinces are in a stage of high coupling and good coordination.The development level of the five provinces and autonomous regions shows a relatively balanced situation in the inter-provincial space.The amount of water resources per capita,the modulus of water production,and the effective irrigation rate,soil erosion control area,and nature reserve area percentage table are the main obstacles hindering the improvement of water resources carrying capacity in the five northwestern provinces.The research shows that the level of water resources carrying capacity and the internal coordination of the system in the five northwestern provinces and regions are currently at a high level,and the overall direction is advancing towards a healthy,coordinated and balanced direction.At the same time,there is still a lot of room for improvement in water resources management and regional water use transformation.