“双支柱”框架下中国式宏观审慎政策有效性评估

The Evaluation of China’s Style Macro-prudential Policy Based on the Framework of “Double Pillars”

本文构建纳入六类宏观审慎政策的DSGE模型,并考虑总贷款、房价、资本金三类金融稳定目标。研究发现,信贷需求类政策的力度和效果优于信贷供给类,原因在于信贷需求类政策对信贷投放等调控更直接。进一步地,宏观审慎政策有效性的前提为,政策想要实现的目标与其盯住的目标要保持一致。此外,宏观审慎政策在实现三类金融稳定目标时,需要相互权衡。政策前沿曲线结果显示,“双支柱”调控框架有效性明显优于盯住金融稳定的货币政策调控框架。

Constructing a DSGE model with six types of macro-prudential policies and three types of financial stability objectives, this study finds that the strength and effect of credit demand policy is better than that of credit supply policy, because credit demand policy is relatively more direct in regulating credit supply. Furthermore, the premise of the effectiveness of macro-prudential policies is that the goal that the policy aims to achieve should be consistent with the goal that the policy focuses on. In addition, macro-prudential policies need to weigh each other when dealing with three kinds of financial stability objectives.