金融开放、金融摩擦与中国宏观经济波动

Financial Openness,Financial Friction and Chinese Macroeconomic Fluctuations

本文将金融摩擦及金融开放程度差异纳入开放经济动态随机一般均衡模型,量化分析我国金融开放程度与宏观经济波动之间的关系。研究发现:金融开放程度与产出波动呈现U形非线性关系,金融摩擦是使得产出波动出现拐点的关键;随着金融摩擦程度的减小,越大程度的金融开放越有利于宏观经济稳定;外国冲击与金融摩擦的相互作用是决定产出波动非线性变化的关键;福利分析显示金融开放可增进福利,但更强的外国冲击则可能逆转福利效应。

Incorporating financial frictions and financial openness into an open economic dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model,we attempt to analyze the relationship between China’s financial openness and macroeconomic fluctuations.We find that the degree of financial openness and output volatility have a U-shape non-linear relationship,and financial friction is the key to the inflection point of output volatility;As the degree of financial friction decreases,the greater the degree of financial openness is more conducive to macroeconomic stability;the interaction between foreign shocks and financial frictions is the key to determining nonlinear changes in output fluctuations;Welfare analysis shows that financial liberalization can improve welfare,but stronger risks of foreign shocks may reverse welfare effects.