贸易政策不确定性是否诱发了企业金融化?——来自中国制造业上市公司的微观证据

Does Trade Policy Uncertainty Induce Corporate Financialization?——Micro Evidence from Chinese Manufacturing Listed Companies

近年来,贸易保护主义冲击成为中国经济面临的重大挑战。本文分析表明,贸易政策不确定性可能通过“投资挤出”与“融资压抑”影响企业投融资;进而,实证发现,贸易政策不确定性与中国上市公司金融化之间存在显著的倒U形关系,企业的实体投资替代动机在不确定性冲击下的持续强化,以及资金供给方的避险回撤削减企业“蓄水池”资金共同驱动了这一非线性模式。本文启示,高不确定性环境中企业整体金融化指标的下降并不意味着“脱实向虚”现象的缓解。

In recent years,shocks of trade protectionism has become a major challenge for Chinese economy.Our analysis show that trade policy uncertainty may affect corporate decisions through“investment crowding-out”and“financing repression”mechanisms.Empirical examinations show that there is a significant inverted U-shaped relationship between trade policy uncertainty and corporate financialization.The strengthening of the real-investment substitution motivation of companies under uncertainty shocks,and the reduction of“cash pool”of companies due to risk aversion of credit providers together drive this pattern.These results imply that the decline of the overall financialization level in highly uncertain environment does not indicate the alleviation of“transformation from real to fictitious economy”.