区域服务贸易协定、承诺深度与中国服务出口持续期

Regional Service Trade Agreements, Commitment Depth and Continuity of China’s Services Export

贸易关系的稳定,对外贸高质量发展和经济稳增长具有重要意义。基于联合国服务贸易数据库,采用K-M生存分析法对2001—2016年中国服务细分行业进行出口持续期的测算,结果表明:中国服务出口的持续时间较短,传统服务行业的出口持续时间明显长于新兴服务行业;中国服务出口生存持续期缺乏稳定性,其生存概率在样本观测期内一直处于不断衰减的状态。实证研究发现,区域服务贸易协定的签署及服务部门的承诺深度对服务出口持续期有显著促进作用。

The stability of trade relations is of great significance and plays an important role for China to the highquality development of foreign trade and steady economic growth. Based on the United Nations Trade in services database, K-M survival analysis method is used to calculate the export duration of China’s service industry from 2001 to2016. The results show that the duration is relatively short, the export duration of traditional service industries is significantly longer than that of emerging service industries. The survival duration of China’s service exports lacks stability,and its survival probability has been in a declining state during the observation period. The empirical study found that the signing of regional service trade agreements and the depth of commitment in the service sector had a significant positive effect on the duration of service exports.