财政收支与区域经济增长的实证分析--以成都市为例

Empirical Analysis of Fiscal Revenue and Expenditure and Regional Economic Growth--Taking Chengdu as an Example

在我国追求经济高质量发展的背景下,成渝地区双城经济圈的建设已上升为国家战略。成都作为该战略的核心城市,经济的高质量发展至关重要,要发展就离不开财政的支持。因此,本文以成都市为例,以财政收支与经济增长为研究对象,利用1990-2019年相关宏观经济数据进行实证分析。结果表明:(1)成都市财政收入、财政支出、经济增长之间存在两个协整关系;(2)成都市财政收入、财政支出是经济增长的格兰杰原因,财政收入与财政支出是双向因果关系;(3)成都市经济增长的变化前期主要来自于自身冲击,后期主要受财政支出的冲击。基于上述结论,提出了关于成都市经济增长的对策建议。

Under the background of China's pursuit of high-quality economic development,the construction of Chengdu-Chongqing economic circle has risen to a national strategy.As the core city of this strategy,Chengdu's high-quality economic development is of vital importance,and its development can not be separated from financial support.Therefore,this paper takes Chengdu as an example,takes financial revenue and expenditure and economic growth as the research object,and makes empirical analysis based on relevant macroeconomic data from 1990 to 2019.The results show:(1)There are two integration relations between fiscal revenue,fiscal expenditure and economic growth in Chengdu;(2)Chengdu's fiscal revenue and expenditure are Granger causes of economic growth,and fiscal revenue and expenditure are two-way causality;(3)The change of Chengdu's economic growth mainly comes from its own impact in the early stage,and is mainly affected by the impact of fiscal expenditure in the later stage.Based on the above conclusions,the countermeasures and suggestions for economic growth of Chengdu are put forward.