粮食主产区政策对粮食生产安全的影响

The effects of policies for major grain producing areas on grain production security

保障粮食生产安全是粮食主产区政策的首要目标。基于这一现实背景,文章意在评估粮食主产区政策对粮食生产安全的影响。基于1997—2019年中国省级面板数据的预评估,本文发现粮食主产区的粮食总产量、粮食单产和粮食播种面积增长均显著高于非粮食主产区。在此基础上,本文运用双重差分模型实证分析粮食主产区政策对粮食生产安全的影响。结果表明:1)粮食主产区政策能够促进粮食主产区粮食生产,保障粮食生产安全。2)粮食主产区政策在北方粮食主产区更显著;粮食单产分位点越高,粮食主产区政策的效果越弱。3)粮食生产适度规模经营是粮食主产区政策保障粮食生产安全的重要路径。4)非粮食主产区的“非粮化”问题会抵消粮食主产区政策的部分效果。据此,建议保持粮食主产区政策的连续性、稳定性和有效性;因地制宜完善各粮食主产区粮食生产支持政策;鼓励粮食主产区粮食生产发展适度规模经营;增加对非粮食主产区保障粮食生产安全的关注度。

Guaranteeing grain production security is the most paramount objective of policies for major grain producing areas.This paper seeks to assess the effects of policies for major grain producing areas on grain production security.In light of the pre-assessment on China’s provincial panel data from 1997 to 2019,this paper finds that the total grain output,grain yield per unit area and planted area in major grain producing areas are significantly higher than in non-major grain producing areas.On this basis,this paper employs the difference in differences model to empirically analyze the effects of policies for major grain producing areas on grain production security.Results show that:1)the policies for major grain producing areas can promote grain production in the major grain producing areas and ensure grain production security;2)the effect of policies for the major grain producing areas is more remarkable in the north:the higher the yield quantile of grain,the weaker the effect of policies for the major grain producing areas;3)appropriate scale operation of grain production is a crucial path for policies for major grain producing areas to ensure grain production security;and 4)the issue of“Degraining farmland”in non-major grain producing areas can offset part of the effects of policies for major grain producing areas.Therefore,this paper recommends to maintain the continuity,stability as well as effectiveness of the policies for the major grain producing areas,to improve the support policies for grain production in the major grain producing areas according to local conditions,to encourage the moderate scale operation of grain production in the major grain producing areas,and to pay more attention to grain production security in non-major grain producing areas.