创新驱动经济增长的“U”型规律与金融激励机制的影响——来自世界的经验

The U-shaped Law of Innovation-driven Economic Growth and the Impact of Financial Incentive Mechanisms: Experience from the World

选择世界100个国家或地区1995—2019年的平衡面板数据对创新驱动经济增长的“U”型规律的机理予以说明并开展检验,通过最小二乘法(OLS)、工具变量的两阶段最小二乘法(2SLS)、对弱工具变量问题不敏感的有限信息最大似然法(LIML)、对异方差更有效率的广义矩估计法(GMM)以及迭代广义矩估计法(迭代GMM)分别对模型进行估计,并对其中可能存在的金融激励影响机制以及异质性开展检验。通过多个内生性与稳健性的方法检验后发现,技术创新驱动经济增长满足“U”型规律且金融激励机制在其中发挥杠杆作用,金融激励机制强化了技术创新驱动经济增长的“U”型规律。得出恰当地选择创新项目的对象并合理地开展投资以及持续支持创新等应对“中等收入陷阱”问题的政策启示。

This paper selects the balanced panel data from 100 countries or regions in the world from 1995 to 2019to explain and test the mechanism of the U-shaped law of innovation-driven economic growth. Through the least squares method(OLS), the two-stage least squares method of instrumental variables(2SLS), the limited information maximum likelihood method(LIML) which is not sensitive to weak instrumental variables, the generalized method of moments(GMM) which is more efficient for heteroscedasticity, and the iterative generalized method of moments(iterative GMM), it estimates the model respectively. The possible influence mechanism and heterogeneity of financial incentives are tested. After testing with multiple endogeneity and robustness methods, it is found that innovationdriven economic growth satisfies the U-shaped law, and the financial incentive mechanism has played a leverage role,while the financial incentives have been strengthened the U-shaped law of technological innovation-driven economic growth. From this, it draws the policy implications of properly selecting the objects of innovation projects, carrying out reasonable investments, and continuing to support innovation, which can use to deal with the "middle-income trap" problem.