中国“一带一路”重大能源项目投资风险因素的定性比较分析

Qualitative Comparative Analysis of the Investment Risk Factors of"Belt and Road"Major Energy Projects in China

“一带一路”重大能源项目风险存在不确定性和复杂性,识别风险组合的多样性对项目顺利实施具有重要影响。为此,本文基于“战略三角范式”理论,从制度、产业和资源三个层面刻画重大能源项目风险组合的多样性,并选取“一带一路”21个重大能源项目案例,通过结合必要性分析(NCA)和模糊集定性比较分析(fsQCA)两种方法,从组态视角探讨三个维度风险的不同组合对“一带一路”重大能源项目投资结果的影响。本文最终得到4种“一带一路”重大能源项目风险组合,以及1种投资失败的风险组合;识别得到文化距离和市场机会两项核心风险指标;通过对比成败两种结果的风险组合可知,仅当东道国的市场机会增加或两国文化制度差距降低时,将提高“一带一路”重大能源项目成功落地的可能性。本研究为中国企业在“一带一路”重大能源项目投资的风险识别和管理提供思路。

There are uncertainties and complexity in"Belt and Road"major energy projects,and identifying the diversity of risk combinations has an important impact on the smooth implementation of the project.Therefore,based on the theory of"strategic triangle paradigm",this paper describes the diversity of risk combinations of major energy projects from the three levels of system,industry and resources,and selects 21 major energy project cases of"Belt and Road"to discuss the impact of different combinations of risks on the investment results of"Belt and Road"by combining necessity analysis(NCA)and fuzzy set qualitative comparative analysis(fsQCA).This paper finally obtains four"Belt and Road"major energy projects,and one"system-industry"dual risk mode with investment failure;identify two core risk indicators:cultural distance and market opportunity;By comparing the risk combination of success or failure results,the possibility of successful landing of Belt and Road major energy projects will be increased only when the market opportunities of the host country increases or the cultural system gap between the two countries decreases.This study provides ideas for risk identification and management of domestic enterprises investing in major energy"Belt and Road"projects.