珠海市沿海码头风暴增水及最高潮位情景预测

Predicting the Scenario of Storm Surge and Highest Tidal Level for a Coastal Port of Zhuhai

为进一步评估和预测台风对珠海市沿海码头风暴增水的影响,提高珠海市应对台风次生灾害的科学防御能力,基于历史台风个例资料,利用风暴潮增水模型和天文潮调和分析预报模型,构建以珠海九洲港码头为对象的百年一遇风暴增水和天文潮情景。结果表明:风暴潮增水模型和天文潮调和分析预报模型均可以很好地模拟风暴潮和天文潮。基于重现期的计算结果构建出未来可能出现的最大台风,通过不同路径的模拟,发现台风移动方向越接近正北,风暴增水越大;当中心最低气压和中心附近最大风速设为100年一遇的值时,最大风暴增水为5.1 m,且码头北侧增水要比南侧增水更大;叠加最高天文潮位预测值(1.4 m),得出未来100年沿海码头的最高潮位可能达6.5 m。

To further assess and predict the effect of tropical cyclones(TCs)on storm surges at a coastal port of Zhuhai and upgrade the capabilities of preventing TC-inflicted secondary disasters for the city,this work constructs a scenario of storm surges and astronomical tides that could happen once in 100 years at Jiuzhou Port,Zhuhai,based on historical TC cases and a storm surge model and an astronomical tide harmonic analysis model.The results are shown as follows.The two models well reproduce the storm surges and astronomical tides.Computations based on recurrence periods successfully construct the most severe TC that may occur in the future.Simulated through various routes,the storm surge is found to be greater when the moving direction of the TC is closer to the north.When minimum pressure and maximum wind speed near the eye are set to be once-in-a-century values,maximum storm surge is 5.1 m with greater values on the northern than the southern side of the port.When superimposed with the highest astronomical tidal level(1.4 m),the highest tidal level is forecast to be as much as 6.5 m in the coming 100 years.