辽中南城市群城市扩张及其碳排放效应

Urban expansion and carbon emission effect of the urban agglomeration in south-central Liaoning Province

利用夜间灯光遥感数据分析2000—2016年间辽中南城市群的城市扩张现象,基于碳排放数据尝试从空间上对城市扩张与碳排放关系进行定量化研究,分析辽中南城市群的碳排放时空差异,并对城市扩张指数和碳排放量进行脱钩分析。研究结果表明:辽中南城市群的年平均扩张速率从3.93%增长到5.48%,扩张强度从0.211增长到0.525;2000—2016年间,全区碳排放总量从636.94亿t增加到1772.46亿t,年平均碳排放速率先是从7.02%增加到18.96%又减少至0.96%,经历了一个从快到慢的过程,地均碳排放量呈现增长趋势,但各市变化差异较大;辽中南城市群的城市扩张促进了碳排放量增加,但同时存在脱钩现象,其脱钩状态从以扩张负脱钩为主转向以弱脱钩为主,到2016年,研究区已有80%的城市处于脱钩状态。研究结果对未来城市规划和节能减排政策的制订具有重要意义。

In this study,the urban expansion of the urban agglomeration in south-central Liaoning Province from 2000 to 2016 was analyzed using the nighttime light remote sensing data.The spatial relationship between urban expansion and carbon emission was quantitatively studied based on the carbon emission data.The spatial-temporal differences of carbon emissions in the study area were analyzed.Moreover,decoupling analysis was made targeting urban expansion index and carbon emissions.The results are as follows.The annual average expansion rate of the study area increased from 3.93% to 5.48%,with the expansion intensity increased from 0.211 to 0.525.The total carbon emission in the study area increased from 63.694 billion tons to 177.246 billion tons during 2000—2016.The annual average carbon emission rate increased from 7.02% to 18.96% and then decreased to 0.96%,experiencing a process from fast to slow.The average local carbon emission showed an increasing trend but varied greatly among cities.The urban expansion of the study area contributed to but also decoupled with carbon emission.The decoupling state changed from expansion negative decoupling to weak decoupling.By 2016,80% of the cities in the study area had been in the decoupling state.The study results have significant implications for formulating future urban planning and energy conservation and emission reduction policies.