“双碳”目标下碳交易与制造业绿色全要素生产率——基于异质性技术创新模式的机制检验

Carbon Trading and Green Total Factor Productivity in Manufacturing Industry under the"Double Carbon"Goal:A Mechanism Test Based on Heterogeneous Technology Innovation Model

碳交易是推动制造业绿色发展,实现“双碳”目标的重要市场化工具,交易价格和市场规模能够反映碳交易实施状况,是影响制造业绿色全要素生产率的重要因素。从碳交易价格和市场规模切入,基于2008—2020年中国内地30个省份面板数据,构建连续型双重差分模型评估碳交易对制造业绿色全要素生产率的作用效果,并考察异质性技术创新模式的传导路径。结果表明,提高碳交易价格和扩大市场规模均能显著提升制造业绿色全要素生产率。机制检验表明,碳交易价格和市场规模能够推动自主创新、减少技术改造投入,进而影响制造业绿色全要素生产率,而技术引进并非有效路径。进一步研究发现,自主创新对技术改造存在挤出效应。研究结论对完善碳交易制度顶层设计、精准制定技术创新配套政策具有重要启示意义。

Since the 1990s,global warming has frequently caused extreme weather such as droughts and floods,damaged the ecological environment and threatened the safety of human life and property,which has aroused widespread concern in the international community.Therefore,China has actively taken part in global governance and put forward the"dual carbon"goal.Carbon trading is an important policy tool to achieve the goal of"dual carbon".Existing studies have shown that carbon trading has significant effect to reduce emissions.However,it is important to note that enterprises involved in carbon trading may reduce carbon emissions through industrial transfer or output reduction,but these measures can not last for long.Green transformation of manufacturing industry is the fundamental path of carbon emission reduction,and its important performance is the improvement of green total factor productivity.Manufacturing enterprises are the main emission control subjects involved in carbon trading.Therefore,it is necessary to give full play to the promotion role of carbon trading on green total factor productivity in manufacturing in order to reduce carbon emissions on the basis of the healthy development of the manufacturing industry and achieve the goal of"dual carbon"at an early date.Existing studies mostly investigate the impact of carbon trading implementation on green total factor productivity in manufacturing.In fact,carbon trading price and market scale differ significantly in different pilot regions,which has a great impact on green total factor productivity in manufacturing.Then how do carbon trading price and market scale affect green total factor productivity in manufacturing?In the research on the transmission path of carbon trading affecting green total factor productivity,most scholars believe that technological innovation is an important channel,but most of them take it as a whole.The theory of suitability puts forward that unsuitable technological innovation is difficult to match with the development stage of a country or region,and will weaken the impetus of technological innovation.Therefore,it is an important topic for manufacturing enterprises to choose suitable technology innovation mode.Under the constraints of carbon trading,which is the main innovation path to improve green total factor productivity in manufacturing,technology introduction,technology transformation,or independent innovation?To answer the above questions,on the basis of panel data of 30 provinces in China from 2008 to 2020,a continuous dual difference model is constructed to evaluate the effects of carbon trading price and market scale on green total factor productivity of manufacturing industry,and investigate the transmission path of heterogeneous technological innovation mode.The results show that increasing carbon trading price and expanding market scale can significantly improve green total factor productivity in manufacturing.Theoretical analysis shows that carbon trading price directly affects green total factor productivity in manufacturing through benefit incentive effect,cost pressure effect and survival of the fittest effect.The scale of carbon trading directly affects green total factor productivity in manufacturing by exerting the market mechanism,the change of quantity of demand side and the change of quantity of supply side.Based on the simultaneous equation model,the empirical test shows that carbon trading price and market scale can promote independent innovation and reduce technological transformation,thus affecting green total factor productivity in manufacturing,but technology introduction is not an effective path.The interaction term model is constructed to further analyze why the manufacturing industry increases independent innovation and reduces technological transformation under the background of carbon trading.It is found that the innovation funds of enterprises are limited and independent innovation has a crowding-out effect on technological transformation.In fact,existing studies show that the implementation of carbon trading policy has a positive effect on green total factor productivity in manufacturing,However,the influence of carbon trading characteristics,such as the impact of transaction price and market scale on green total factor productivity in manufacturing has not been specified.The conclusions of this paper are significant supplements to the existing research.In addition,existing studies show that carbon trading can affect green total factor productivity in manufacturing through technological innovation,industrial structure and energy structure.This paper focuses on the function path of technological innovation to conduct a deeper analysis and refine the function channel exploration.The research conclusions have important implications for improving the design of carbon trading system and accurately formulating supporting policies for technological innovation.