基于MaxEnt模型分析气候变化下玉米褪绿斑驳病毒的潜在地理分布

Potential geographic distribution of maize chlorotic mottle virus under climate changes based on MaxEnt model

为明确气候变化背景下玉米褪绿斑驳病毒(maize chlorotic mottle virus,MCMV)的潜在分布范围,基于MCMV的全球分布数据,筛选影响其分布的关键环境变量,利用MaxEnt模型和ArcGIS软件预测MCMV在历史(1970—2000年)和未来(2021—2040年)气候条件下的潜在地理分布范围。结果表明,MaxEnt模型的受试者工作特征(receiver operating characteristic,ROC)曲线下面积(area under curve,AUC)均值为0.941,预测结果的准确性较高。历史气候条件下,MCMV在全球具有广泛的适生范围,在亚洲、美洲、非洲、欧洲和大洋洲均存在适生区;在我国其适生区主要集中于中部和南部地区,总适生区面积占我国陆地总面积的41.62%。未来气候情景下,MCMV在全球的适生性有所降低,在我国的总适生区面积有所减少,但适生范围仍较为广泛;未来气候变化虽不利于MCMV在全球的进一步扩张,但可能更利于其在欧洲生存。MCMV在我国的潜在地理分布范围广,特别是西南地区,在历史和未来气候条件下均存在高适生区,因此建议进境口岸检疫部门应加强检疫检测,严防MCMV传入;内检部门应加强检疫监测和防控,严防其扩散。

To clarify the potential distribution range of maize chlorotic mottle virus(MCMV) under climate changes. Based on the global distribution data of MCMV, the key environmental variables affecting its distribution were screened, and the potential geographical distribution of MCMV under historical(1970—2000) and future(2021—2040) climatic conditions were predicted using MaxEnt model and ArcGIS software. The results showed that the mean value of area under curve(AUC) of receiver operating characteristic(ROC) of MaxEnt model was 0.941, and the prediction results had a high accuracy.Under historical climate conditions, MCMV was predicted to have a wide range of suitable area globally, occurring in Asia, America, Africa, Europe and Oceania. In China, its suitable areas were predicted mainly concentrated in the central and southern regions, and the total suitable areas occupied 41.62% of total land area. Under future climate scenarios, the global suitability of MCMV would decrease, and the total suitable area in China would also decrease, but the suitable range would still be relatively wide. Although future climate change is not conducive to the further expansion of MCMV globally, it may be more favorable to its survival in Europe. While its potential geographic distribution in China is wide, especially in the southwest, where there are high suitable areas under both historical and future climate conditions, therefore, quarantine departments at ports should strengthen quarantine detection to strictly prevent the introduction of MCMV;domestic quarantine departments should strengthen quarantine monitoring, and prevention and control to strictly prevent its spread.