基于MaxEnt模型预测气候变化下玉米根萤叶甲在中国的潜在地理分布

Prediction of the potential geographical distribution of western corn rootworm Diabrotica virgifera virgifera in China under climate change based on MaxEnt model

为评估不同气候条件下玉米根萤叶甲Diabrotica virgifera virgifera在我国的潜在地理分布情况及适生区的空间格局变化趋势,通过筛选影响该虫分布的关键环境变量并基于其在全球的分布数据,运用MaxEnt模型和ArcGIS软件预测其在历史和未来气候情景下的潜在地理分布范围和适生区空间格局变化。结果表明,所构建MaxEnt模型的受试者工作特征(receiver operating character‐istic,ROC)曲线下面积(area under curve,AUC)平均为0.960,说明模型预测结果为优秀,具有较高的可信度。关键气候变量中最冷月最低温对玉米根萤叶甲的潜在地理分布具有十分重要的影响,累积贡献率为44.5%。历史气候条件下,玉米根萤叶甲的总适生区面积占我国陆地总面积的23.78%,高适生区主要分布于我国河南、湖北、陕西、甘肃、重庆、四川和云南等省市。未来气候情景下,玉米根萤叶甲在我国的总适生区面积略有减少,整体上呈现出南部收缩、北部扩张的趋势,原中南部的中、高适生区逐步转变为低适生区或非适生区。玉米根萤叶甲在我国的适生区较为广泛,适生范围涵盖多个重要玉米产区,对玉米安全生产威胁较大,应给予足够的重视,严防该虫传入我国。

To assess the trend of potential geographical distribution and suitable areas of the western corn rootworm, Diabrotica virgifera virgifera, in China under different climatic conditions, the key bioclimatic variables affecting the distribution of D. virgifera virgifera was selected and the global distribution data, the MaxEnt model and ArcGIS software were used to predict the potential geographic distribution range and spatial pattern of the suitable areas of D. virgifera virgifera under historical and future climatic conditions. The results showed that the average area under curve(AUC) of receiver operating characteristic(ROC) of the MaxEnt model was 0.960, indicating that the prediction was excellent with high confidence. The minimum temperature of coldest month among the key bioclimatic variables had a very important effect on the potential geographic distribution of D. virgifera virgifera, with a cumulative contribution of 44.5%. Under historical climatic conditions, the total potential suitable areas of D.virgifera virgifera occupied 23.78% of the total land area in China, and the highly suitable area was mainly distributed in Henan, Hubei, Shaanxi, Gansu, Chongqing, Sichuan, Yunnan and other provinces in China. Under future climate scenarios, the total suitable area of D. virgifera virgifera would slightly decreased, and the original moderately and highly suitable areas in south-central China were gradually transformed into slightly suitable or unsuitable areas, showing an overall trend of contraction in the south and expansion in the north. D. virgifera virgifera has a wide potential geographical distribution in China, covering several important maize production areas, and poses a significant threat to the safety of maize production, which should be given sufficient attention to prevent the introduction of this pest into China.