基于集成模型预测外来入侵植物北美刺龙葵的适生区

Ensemble models to predict the suitable areas of alien invasive horsenettle Solanum carolinense

为明确外来入侵植物北美刺龙葵Solanum carolinense在世界范围内的分布格局及对我国玉米种植区的影响,使用集成模型预测其在全球的适生区,并结合玉米收获面积对北美刺龙葵在我国的潜在分布情况进行分析。结果显示,集成模型具有较高精度,真实技巧统计(true skill statistic,TSS)值和受试者工作特征(receiver operating characteristic,ROC)值均大于0.9,预测结果可靠;北美刺龙葵适生区遍布世界各大洲,在我国的适生区遍布18个省(区),其中部分适生区与黄淮海平原夏播玉米区及南方丘陵玉米区有重叠。鉴于北美刺龙葵的适应能力和危害特点,建议对内加强适生区监测,做到早发现,早处理;对外加强口岸检疫,谨防其再次传入扩散。

To clarify the global distribution pattern of the alien invasive horsenettle Solanum carolinense and its influence on the maize growing areas in China, this study used ensemble models to predict its suitable areas in the world. Combined with maize harvest area, the potential geographical distribution of S. carolinense in China was analyzed. The two evaluation methods showed that the ensemble models had a high precision, both receiver operating characteristic(ROC) and true skill statistic(TSS)were greater than 0.9, suggested a reliable prediction. The suitable areas can be found on all the continents of the world. Suitable areas were predicted in 18 provinces or autonomous regions of China, part of these suitable areas are overlapped with the summer maize planting areas in Huang-Huai-Hai plain and maize planting areas in the south hills. In view of the adaptive and harmful characteristics of S.carolinense, it is proposed that monitoring should be strengthened in the suitable areas to achieve early detection, and early treatment. Moreover, the port quarantine should be strengthened to prevent its invasion and spread again.