拉美主要国家贸易规制对中国出口的影响浅析——以拉美六国为例

Analysis of the Influence of Trade Regulations of Major Countries in Latin America on China’s Exports——Taking Six Latin American Countries as Examples

以TBT/SPS通报数、贸易救济案件立案数作为贸易规制措施量化指标,分析2001-2019年中国主要出口拉美国家(墨西哥、巴西、阿根廷、智利、哥伦比亚、秘鲁)采取的贸易规制措施现状,通过构建出口贸易影响修正引力模型,加入滞后变量,从总体和分阶段分析拉美贸易规制对中国出口拉美贸易的影响态势。结果发现,中国对拉美六国出口增长程度不同,且必然伴随拉美进口国贸易规制措施数量增加;拉美六国TBT与SPS通报总数均超过贸易救济措施立案数,TBT和SPS存在相关性,TBT和SPS与贸易救济措施立案数不存在相关性;拉美六国采取的贸易规制措施侧重各不相同,且年度波动较大,墨西哥和智利采取的TBT通报和贸易救济措施较多,巴西和哥伦比亚发起的SPS和TBT通报较多,秘鲁发起的SPS通报较多。拉美贸易规制对中国出口拉美贸易的负面影响表现为:TBT对出口拉美贸易影响从当期开始转为后期,而SPS对后期出口拉美贸易影响较大;贸易救济措施立案数对当期出口影响显著,且由弱变强,且每提高1%导致中国当期出口额下降约0.1%。

This paper takes the number of TBT/SPS notifications and the number of trade remedy cases as the quantitative indicators of trade regulation measures, analyzes the status of trade regulation measures of six major Latin American countries(Mexico, Brazil, Argentina, Chile, Colombia, Peru) from 2001 to 2019. The modified gravity model of export trade’s influence is established with lagged variables, to analyze the impact of Latin American trade regulations on China’s export to Latin American trade in the overall and different phases. The results show that the growth of China’s exports to the six Latin American countries is different, and it must be accompanied by an increase number of Latin American importing countries’ trade regulatory measures. There is no correlation between SPS and the trade remedy;the six Latin American countries have adopted different trade control measures with different emphasis and large annual fluctuations. Mexico and Chile initiated more TBT notifications and adopted trade remedy, and more SPS and TBT notifications were initiated by Brazil and Colombia, and more SPS notifications were initiated by Peru. The negative impact of Latin American trade regulations on China’s exports to Latin America is as follows: the impact of TBT on exports to Latin America has shifted from the current period to the later period, while SPS has a greater impact on the later export of Latin American trade;trade remedy has a significant impact on the current export with a trend from weak to strong, and every 1% increase leads to a decrease of about 0.1% in the current export value.